Iraq: who does it help?
Let's face it, things haven't been going so well over there lately. So who benefits politically? Common sense would suggest Kerry of course, yet the polls haven't borne that out. Daniel Drezner attempted to explain this divergence last week, by positing that increased unrest and turmoil overseas keeps the focus on issues of national security and defense, where Bush still enjoys a strong advantage over his opponent.
I thought it was an interesting idea, but I wasn't convinced at first. Now, however, I can't help but wonder whether Daniel's counterintuitive theory has not become the new conventional wisdom. Kerry's campaign has launched a "three day education tour", in which he slams Bush for the No Child Left Behind Act (for which Kerry, ironically, voted).
Where did this come from? With all the news coming out of Iraq these days, most of it bad, why would Kerry suddenly choose to highlight education policy? Answer: it's a classic Democratic strong suit. My guess is that Team Kerry studied the polling data and came to the exact same conclusions that Drezner did. Maybe Dan's not so crazy after all.