Cynical Nation

From "electability" to "liability."

Democrats Reassess Prospects to Win House

As Kerry's Momentum Lags, Hopes of Regaining Majority of Seats Dim, Analysts Say

Democrats' hopes of regaining the House majority this fall -- never bright at best -- appear increasingly dim, in part because of Sen. John F. Kerry's lackluster campaign performance over the past six weeks, numerous analysts say.

In late July, as upbeat Democrats held their convention in Boston, party leaders said they had capable, well-financed House candidates poised in several states to exploit a nationwide trend that seemed just around the corner. "Democrats can win the House back if this breeze, this movement for a change, continues," said Rep. Robert T. Matsui (Calif.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Since then, however, Republicans conducted a sharp-edged convention in New York, Kerry was slow to respond to attacks on his character and policies, and many of the Democrats' most promising House challengers seemed frozen in place.

When the Massachusetts senator appeared to gain momentum entering and exiting the Boston convention, "the theory was it would all seep down to the House races," said Amy Walter, who tracks House contests for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "But it hasn't happened." Among top Democrats, she said, "you just don't hear that same level of enthusiasm you did a month ago."

Once again, Terry McAuliffe hoses it for the Democrats. How in God's name does this man still have a job? McAuliffe was the architect of the Democrats' compressed primary season strategy. The thinking was that the party would unify behind a candidate early, sparing him from incurring damage from an extended primary fight. The problem is, in the rush to find someone "electable," they ended up with a "pig in a poke," as my friend Mal put it. There was no time for Kerry to be properly vetted by his own party, and with the "anybody but Bush" mindset pervading the party, Kerry seemed good enough at the time. They were pressured into signed the dotted line before they'd shopped around or kicked the tires.

Well, now they're stuck with him. I can sense the anger and frustration out there, largely directed at our side, of course. But hey, it's not our fault you nominated this guy. Had you chosen Lieberman, or even Gephardt, does anybody believe Bush would be leading in the polls right now?

I don't.