Cautious optimism for the GOP
I realize that in posting it I'll be deluged with by readers from both parties who'll claim I'm fantasizing and deluded by wishful thinking. They'll echo the "conventional wisdom" that Rudy Giuliani is anathema to social conservatives, and has zero chance of capturing the GOP presidential nomination. They'll say John McCain is anathema to the party establishment, and has zero chance of capturing the nomination. They'll say that Condi Rice makes social conservatives a bit queasy and has too much neocon baggage and is a black woman besides, and has zero chance of capturing the nomination.
Well what can I say? Maybe they're all correct. But check out this latest GOP preference poll from Rasmussen.
Rudy Giuliani 31%
John McCain 28%
Condoleezza Rice 19%
By my count, that's 78% of Republicans who prefer an "impossible" candidate. Moreover, this poll is not in anomaly. It's pretty much in keeping with every straw and preference poll I've seen since the November election. I know 2008 is a long way off, but I think this is significant. And if the Republicans take a drubbing in the 2006 off-year elections (as is seeming increasingly likely), I predict the party will be even more ready to make a clean break from its recent past.
And perhaps even more important than who's in this poll is who isn't. Namely, there's not a single religious conservative in sight. No Santorums, no Romneys and (thankfully) no Bushes.
Yeah, I'm sure those who want to dismiss this poll can easily find reasons to do so. At this point, however, I'm cautiously optimistic about the future of my party.
Comments
Actually, it's about what I'd expect. The Christofascist Zombie Brigade is somewhere between 20% and 25% of the electorate. I'm not referring to mainstream Christians, or your garden-variety "moral values" voter -- or even the people who'd support George W. Bush if he were caught sodomizing infant boys on live television. I'm referring to the James Dobson wing of the party; the Dominionists; the people who think the country should be run according to Biblical law instead of the Constitution. THOSE are the people who wouldn't vote for any of these three. The rest are usually good soldiers and would vote for whoever the Republican party puts up. So this isn't all that surprising.
The question for you guys is who's going to be doing the nominating. Your problem is that the Zombies have an influence in the party that far exceeds their numbers.
Believe me, I would LOVE to see moderates, or even classical conservatives, re-take the Republican party...because at least then we could get back to "We all want what's best for America, we just differ on how to get there." Fundamentalist Christianity, with its focus on America as a Christian nation (and their particular flavor of Christianity), and their theocratic aims, is the biggest contributor towards the polarization we see right now.
I might not agree with everything Republicans do, but at least I wouldn't have to feel like I was in danger of "convert or die" tactics becoming law in my own country.
Posted by: Jill | September 21, 2005 04:58 PM
I suppose Newt doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell...
Posted by: Paul Moore | September 21, 2005 08:17 PM
It is almost irrelevant who will be the republican candidate in 2008. The democrats are assured to win based on the disastrous performance of the last (current) republican administration. Bush is probably the worst president in American history, and one would expect that, because of this, a democrat will be elected in 2008. The only one who has a chance is McCain. However, he has been a strong supporter of the Iraq war. As this war has been obviously a huge mistake, his support for that war will cost him in 2008 if he is the republican candidate.
Posted by: Blue Wind | September 21, 2005 09:36 PM
Blue,
All democrats were echoing similar views during the past 3 elections and YOU LOST.
Posted by: Anonymous | September 22, 2005 10:47 AM
Blue, you have far more faith in the Democratic Party than is warranted. Just because people have had enough of Republicans doesn't mean a slam-dunk for Democrats.
Unless the Dems can come up with a concrete alternative who actually WANTS the job and can deliver a coherent message with conviction, instead of weighing everything against how the 101st Fighting Keyboarders will react, people will just stay home, and the Christofascist Zombie Brigade and other good Republican soldiers will be the ones who show up at the polls.
Posted by: Jill | September 22, 2005 11:20 AM
You had bad church experiences, didn't you, Jill?
Posted by: That Guy | September 25, 2005 03:53 AM