Cynical Nation

I've long disagreed with the conventional wisdom that Rudy Guiliani is anathema to social conservatives, and therefore has no shot at the nomination in 2008. In poll after poll, Republicans have consistently put Rudy at the top of the list for at least two years now. But how does he fare with movement conservatives?

Today, Ryan Sager observes what may be a "thaw" in relations between Rudy and conservative activists. Among the grassroots, however, it would seem no thaw is needed.

Last May, the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press released what it calls a "political typology" survey, breaking down American voters into nine categories. The GOP groups included "Enterprisers" (free-market types), "Social Conservatives" (Bible Belt types) and "Pro-Government Conservatives" (poorer conservatives). Enterprisers gave Rudy a 91 percent favorable rating, and his support only fell to 75 percent among Social Conservatives. And pro-Rudy Social Conservatives were the most intense in their support for him, with 38 percent rating him very favorably.

Gallup polls have shown similar results, with Giuliani's support fairly even among liberal-to-moderate Republicans and conservative Republicans.

Not too shabby. 2008 is a long way off, of course, so nothing's in the bag, but it would be a mistake to write Rudy off at this point.