Cynical Nation

They should replace it with giant flags representing the Terror Alert Level and the Price of Gasoline, that way we could watch the Republicans pull the Terror up and Gas down as the election nears.

Hey, how about that "supply and demand" JMK? I guess the Chinese suddenly stopped using oil. "Market forces" LOLOL!

Gasloine prices are impacted by refinery capacity Barely.

I know, I know, YOU "don't believe in the Market.

See? That's why gasoline prices skyrocketed after Hurricane Katrina battered oil refineries (that produced gasoline) around the Gulf Coast last year.

Now, after a very mild winter (2005) and an unexpectedly mild hurricane season (2006), our gasoline inventories are very high.

Add to that the recent find by Chevron in the Gulf Coast, a deep water oil field that could increase America's oil supply by over 50% and you can see where speculators would "short" oil prices....can't you?

Keep reading my posts, we'll get you up to speed on market principles in no time....I promise.

Hey, or how about THIS explantion:

Bush's Big Oil buddies gouged the crap out of Americans and made record breaking profits, and now they are dropping the price to influence the election!

Price didn't drop on the fake news of the big oil find in the Gulf of Mexico, not a penny.

Keep trying, but stop lying, Rush.

Bailey: Why would oil prices drop on the news of a big oil find in the Gulf of Mexico that is, at best, 10 years away from production, if the oil companies can satisfy the EPA and obtain state and federal licenses?

And for bonus points: Why would this September be different from any other September when the end of the summer travel season always causes a drop in oil prices.

BTW -- What's your obsession with Rush? They're such an '80s band!

Thank you for calling JMK a dumbass. He said that the find caused a drop in gas price, not me.

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/images/charts/Oil/Historical_Oil_Prices_Chart.htm

Go ahead, find the "usual" September drop. Not there. Another bullshit lie.

"Bush's oil buddies" (I guess that includes Al Gore, with the Gore's being major shareholders of Occidental Petroleum) are charging world market prices, nothing more.

As I said, Chevron and Exxon-Mobil still take oil out of the ground in the U.S. for around $20/barrel, but forcing them to sell it at that price would leave them vulnerable to takeover by energy companies like England's BP-Amocco, Venezuella's Citgo and Russia's Lukoil.

Oil is sold at current world market price...always has been, always will be. At least, that is, unless we, at some point, slip into "Third worldism" and nationalize our oil inventories.

Chances of that happening - thankfully, virtually nil.

Barely, I'm trying hard to help, but you apparently don't care to understand how the market works - for instance, actually that Chevron announcement of that find in the Gulf DID indeed cause speculators to "short oil" prices, resulting in some of the recent dip. Like ALL commodities, the world market price is driven by speculators who react to changes in supply (unrest or disruptions in OPEC nations & new reserves found) AND demand (like China & India's incredible surge in demand over the past decade).

Speculators drive the day-to-day price of commodities (like oil) and they are impacted by many different variables, even psychological factors like, "fears of terrorist activity that might lead to disruptions in the oil supply."

WF referred to a usual "September drop in oil prices, which indeed USUALLY occurs as the "peak driving season" ends.

There was certainly no "September drop" last year...BUT that was almost entirely due to Katrina's impact on our Gulf Coast refineries.

Our current refinery capacity is precarious because of government's (largely those kooky enviro-types) having long barred the building of new refineries in the U.S., until recntly.

The ones being built now, won't be online for some time yet.

I'm here to help you out BH. You were proven wrong on H-1B visas and their impact, on tax cuts, on why oil prices have risen.

Look to the market, BH, look to the market.

BH: "Thank you for calling JMK a dumbass."

I happen to disagree with JMK on that point, but I never called him a dumbass -- in fact I was addressing our "fake news of the big oil find" comment.

In fact, I have to stand slightly corrected on my "at best, 10 years" comment. This morning on CNN I heard an oil industry expert say that best case would be five years and probably case would be six or seven years before the new GoM find comes on line.

BH: "Go ahead, find the "usual" September drop. Not there. Another bullshit lie."

Bailey, you are correct, I was mistaken. Both crude and gasoline prices frequently do spike in September (BTW, how do you explain the October price spike in election year 2004?).

But prices clearly tend to trend down at the end of the year as demand for gasoline lowers. In exceptionally cold winters, crude tends to spike up again in December through January.

In any event, prices generally correlate to well understood market forces. You do agree, don't you, that Labor Day ends the traditional summer vacation season and summer in fact ends in late September -- or do you think that Autumn is another "bullshit lie?"

My source: (Department of Energy)

Sorry, I screwed up my link.

Department of Energy

BW you're right about the end of "the peak driving season" - it does generally result in a price drop in gasoline due to lowered demand, though other factors play a part, like last year's devastating hurricane season.

But, it is speculation, from commodities speculators, who exert the most control over the day-to-day prices of commodities, including oil.

Forecasted good news in Iraq, like the announcement the other day that Iraq's new government is taking greater military control of its own country = a signal to short oil prices, that is to bet on them declining due to increased stability in that vital region.

Bad news in Iraq, or even disruptions in Nigeria or Venezuella = a signal to bet oil prices will rise.

Same with weather - last year's hurricane season severely disrupted the already strained U.S. refinery capacity, the mild winter of 2005 and the subsequent milder hurricane of 2006 have left our national oil reserves high.

A colder than normal winter to come, would almost certainly signal speculators to bid oil prices higher.

The Chevron announcement created optimism in the oil futures market via a projected increase in supply. It also bolsters the belief that many in the energy industry hold to that vast supplies of oil remain hidden and inaccessible at this time.

That's important because it bolsters the view among speculators that we'll be using oil for the forseeable future and that new reserves (supplies) will be found.

Optimism and confidence in supply generally applies a downward pressure on prices, while pessimism and jitters over a waning supply tend to apply an upward pressure on prices.

Many anti-market people blame commodity speculators for inflating the price of oil, despite the fact that they're only reacting to supply and demand signals.

SORRY withoutfeathers....I MEANT WF, NOT BW.

My bad!

LOL!! JMK it's all BS wiv the WF and the BW, btw. OMG.

Nagin may have a point, just as Coulter had a point. Both said the truth but in a most ugly way...

Build it already! We need it to be a beacon of hope. BUT, we really do not need a memorial building or anything as a memorial, as it will never be forgotten.

This is for the loved ones of those that perished and for all Americans, in fact..so maybe we do need it...not just a 'hole in the ground'.

Nagin could be confused with a 'near' word when it comes to chocolate mix..if ya get my meaning. A-hole.

Why is he still in power down there?..
As you may have noticed I am in two minds..mixed. It's not a good thing to be in the 'middle'. It's annoying and frustrating.

I can see both sides sometimes..recently.

This is why I can't be involved. It's not cut and dried.

OHHH!! btw, I love the new plans for the new TWC.

I saw the original flying in to the US for the very first tiem at about 8pm US time in 1989.....checkered window lights on(Novemeber)..and thinking ..wow...this is New York...wow.

God Bless us all for the 5th anniversary of this terrible...anniversary..

May it never happen again.

I just wish some would see the vision of GWB...the bigger picture...and it will never happen again...imo, anyway.

"just as Coulter had a point.

The only points Coulter has are racist and antiamerican. She is not worth quoting.

Wow, the Bush/Corporatist/Big Oil apologists can't even keep their lies straight as they trip all over themselves trying to prove that all of these rich old white guys are just, aw shucks, clean honest hard-working folk.

LOL!

Keep worshipping the Devil, idiots.

"Wow, the Bush/Corporatist/Big Oil apologists can't even keep their lies straight..." (BH)
(BH)


TRANSLATION: "I don't know how to argue with the facts."

The answer is simple Barely, DON'T argue with the facts. Arguing against things like supply & demand and market forces is like arguing against gravity!

Yes, gravity is unfair and over time imposes deleterious effects on all things animate and inanimate...but arguing against its existence is as dumb as it is hopeless.

Stop doing that...and you'll feel better, and occasionally, even make more sense.

"LOL!! JMK it's all BS wiv the WF and the BW, btw. OMG."

Just out of curiosity, jane, what do you think I said that is "BS[?]"

Market forces? LOL!

So the price of Oil just went up right?

Al Quida just released a tape promising to cause economic devastation to the United States, meaning they are going to attack oil production, refineries, etc ... certainly that should cause oil prices to rise, no?

No. The election is coming. Oil prices will keep going down. Iran refuses to stop its nuclear program (once blames for oil prices rising) and oil keeps falling. The "market myth" is so transparent that a child wouldn't buy it anymore.

Why don't we wager, JMK. If the price of oil is less than it is today on election day, you leave the board permanently. If it is higher, I will leave.

Given the "market forces" you are bound to win. The "September adjustment" has already happened, and it is impossible to imagine things will get better. Will China stop using oil? Will terrorist stop blowing things up? What could possible lower oil?

Go ahead JMK, instead of lying and flapping your jaws, put your money where your mouth is.

There is no new oil on the market, and nothing has improved in the Middle East or elsewhere to account for falling oil prices. I am betting on the sheer political manipulation of the price of oil, and I am giving you "market forces" ... so take the bet.

But you won't. Even you aren't naive enough to truly believe that oil, or jobs, is truly supply and demand. You know it is a lie.

Last year's spike in gasoline prices (to over $3/gallon) here was almost entirely due to the damage the 2005 Hurricane season did to U.S. oil refineries in the the Gulf that generate most of our gasoline supplies.

2005's milder than normal winter and the current milder Hurricane season have left U.S. gasoline inventories high and the refinery production that got back online over the last year hasn't been damaged....thus falling gasoline prices.

As I said, "it's the commodities speculators, who exert the most control over the day-to-day prices of commodities, including oil."

They react to events like milder winters and hurricane seasons and proposed good news (1) Iraq's new government taking on more military control of that country and (2) Chevron's confirmed find in the Gulf.

Now if that Chevron find was shown even to be overblown, that would almost certainly return some jitters to the speculation market for oil.

That's NOT going to be the case though, if anything, I'm betting that find may be even bigger than they first thought.

Not only is supply and demand one of the things that sets the value of skills (jobs) and oil, it is the ONLY thing that sets that value.

Supply and demand is why rare skills like neurosurgery is valued (paid far more) than common skills, like ditch digging, or picking fruit.

It's also the reason the speculatores in the commodities market can bid up or down the price of a commodity, like oil, based on many factors, both tangible (like the weather) and intangible (like the psychology of the market - its reactig to perceived good and bad news).

Your disbelief in the market makes sense of a lot of things - primarily, why you seem so unhappy and pessimistic about things.

This season is forecasted to be the worst hurricane season ever. It is expected to be worse than last year.

Why aren't oil prices rising?

These "speculators" are very rich individuals aren't they? I wonder if their "speculation" might reflect their politics.

There is absolutely ZERO reason for the price of gas to fall at this time, except the upcoming elections.

I will further predict that after the elections, the price will rise again, within six months, let's say.

Wanna bet?

"This season is forecasted to be the worst hurricane season ever. It is expected to be worse than last year.

Why aren't oil prices rising?" (BH)
New Forecast Sees Bad Hurricane Season But Milder Than 2005

by Staff Writers
Paris (AFP) Jun 12, 2006

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/New_Forecast_Sees_Bad_Hurricane_Season_But_Milder_Than_2005.html

A long-range forecast issued Thursday became the second prediction in just over a week to declare that this year's Atlantic storm season would be bad, but nowhere as brutal as the 2005 record crop that produced Hurricane Katrina.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5626896&ft=1&f=1007

August 8, 2006

National Hurricane Center forecasters release new predictions for the 2006 hurricane season, dropping the number of expected hurricanes from estimates made in May. But the new numbers are only slightly lower, with a range of 7-9 hurricanes instead of 8-10 storms.

One possible bright spot in the new estimates is the number of predicted major hurricanes, which dropped from a range of 4-6 for the season to 3-4.
"These "speculators" are very rich individuals aren't they? I wonder if their "speculation" might reflect their politics.

I don't get your point.

Are you saying that most "rich people" share the same political views?

Are you daft?!

George Soros and Al Gore are very "rich," so is G W Bushy and Richard Mellon-Scaif, and they all have different political views.

But the answer to your first question is "No, they are not all, or even mostly "rich" people." Most "rich" people don't have to take such risks (commodities speculation is extremely risky)...they ARE generally people who WANT to become "rich,"....very rich.

OK, anyone who's not in that former group (those who WANT to become "rich," raise your hands.

I see no hands!

The price of gasoline spiked after last year's Hurricane Katrina.

I drove up from Virginia that week and saw gases prices being raised multiple times within a single week.

They dipped below $3/gallon by the winter and stayed around $2.85/gallon for most of the year.

The recent 25 cent per gallon decline is due to specualtors acting on INFORMATION - no diruptions in U.S. refinery capacity, increased Saudi production earlier in the year, not much bad news from the Mid-East, in fact some very good news as Iraq's new government has started to take over military control of that country and U.S. gasoline inventories remaining high after a very mild winter (2005) and a much milder Hurricane season than expected (2006)...see above.

If oil demand from China and India were absent, there'd be little to have pushed oil prices from their low of about $10/barrell to a peak of over $70/barrell this past summer.

The future price of gasoline will be determined by future information.

If you can promise me a warmer than average winter, I'll take any bet that oil and gasoline prices will continue to decline, though in the relatively short-term (one year to eighteen months) I believe oil and gas prices will decline due to advancing technologies, new finds, like Chevron's, there will be others and greater refinery production.

And I'm sorry about your case of Baboon ass.

All you have to do is take my bet if you truly believe what you say.

I am willing to bet on a very specific pattern that is highly unlikely to happen by chance (market forces) and is instead entirely dependent on market manipulation.

Since I am so crazy, you should jump at the chance to score such an easy victory.

Oil prices will continue to fall until the election. Withing six months of the election's end (so as not to make it too obvious) they will go back up substantially, and the rape will continue.

Market forces are bullshit. You are a rube.

"Market forces are bullshit." (BH)
(BH)


Thanks for confirming my suspicions about you. That's all I need to know.

To date, oil prices have ONLY responded to market forces, most of which you apparently fail to understand.

You won't bet. That's all I need to know.

Here's the ONLY fact you need to know; "To date, oil prices have ONLY responded to market forces," and they will continue to respond ONLY to market forces.

Asking me to bet that we'll have another mild winter is as naive on your part as it would be foolish on mine.

In fact, I'm betting on a colder than average winter, as that's been the pattern over the last few decades.

By mid-winter (January, or February), my guess is that oil prices will start creeping up due to increased heating fuel demand.

Same as the collapse of the tech sector and so many tech sector jobs over the past five years.

The "Tech Bubble Bust" of the spring 2000, which saw the NASDAQ drop from over 5,000 in February 2000 to around 1200 by June of 2001 wiped out all of the DEMAND for those positions created by that gossamer "Tech Bubble," a bubble that never should've existed in the first place,>/B> and wouldn't have except for some legerdemain at the Clinton-era SEC.

Demand for all those tech jobs dropped so much, so fast that the H-1B Visa limit that Clinton raised for the second time in 2000 (up to 195,000/year) was NEVER reached while it existed.

Like I said earlier, you're like the toddler who pokes himself in the eye and blames his mother, who is holding him."

The "Tech Bubble Bust," both artifically created and destroyed by the previous administration CAUSED tens of thousnads of tech sector jobs to disappear. You claim to have lost a tech job while G W Bush was in office and inanely blame Bush for the misguided policies of the previous administration. Policies that the current administration fixed!

They let the "Tech Bubble" implosion "run its course," cut taxes and speeded up a recovery, while halving the war deficit at the same time.

the "kooky environmental" types have nothing to do with oil companies and building new refineries. Big oul does nt want to spend the money or dilute their profits. How do I know--I used to work for one of them, so let's cut the envrionmental bogus commnets. You don't know!