Cynical Nation

Here's a prediction I forgot to make. If the Democrats do well tomorrow (i.e., take control of at least one chamber of Congress) then this race will have been a referendum on President Bush, and the voters will have rejected him. If the Republicans somehow manage to hang on, this will not have been about President Bush at all, but rather a collection of individual races driven by local issues, in which incumbents have huge advantages via gerrymandering.

But I tell you, if tomorrow's election is not perceived as an up-or-down vote on President Bush, it won't be for lack of trying. I don't know about the rest of the country, but every single Democratic campaign ad up here is nothing but "BUSHBUSHBUSHBUSHIRAQBUSHBUSHBUSHBUSHIRAQWARBUSHBUSHBUSHBUSH!!" Tom Kean, Jr., for example, has a nothing job in the New Jersey state assembly, but you'd think he were George W. Bush's senior right-hand man in charge of policy and torture, judging from Menendez's ads. All the campaign spots spend more time showing Bush making a monkey face than showing either the candidate or his opponent. "STOP BUSH!" signs are up all over Hudson County, as if it's 2004 or something.

Honestly, if the Republicans do somehow manage an upset tomorrow, it will be because they didn't have anyone running against them. All their opponents were running against a lame duck who's never running for elected office again.