Does Iran Really Need Nuclear Power?
Surprisingly, the answer may be YES.
The U.S. case against Iran is based on Iran's deceptions regarding nuclear weapons development. This case is buttressed by assertions that a state so petroleum-rich cannot need nuclear power to preserve exports, as Iran claims. The U.S. infers, therefore, that Iran's entire nuclear technology program must pertain to weapons development. However, some industry analysts project an Irani oil export decline [e.g., Clark JR (2005) Oil Gas J 103(18):34-39]. If such a decline is occurring, Iran's claim to need nuclear power could be genuine. Because Iran's government relies on monopoly proceeds from oil exports for most revenue, it could become politically vulnerable if exports decline.
Comments
That's certainly possible, but then again, it seems as Iran has been very frank in its desire to obtain nuclear weaponry as well.
Posted by: BNJ | January 11, 2007 08:58 AM
True, but as the article elaborates on their entire welfare state is built on revenues from oil and gas exports. Exports which appear to be in an unstoppable decline.
What better way to scare up world oil prices (and therefore revenues) than by using the threat of developing nuclear weapons to use against Israel. Perhaps Ahmadinejad isn't as crazy as he seems.
Posted by: CRB | January 11, 2007 10:51 AM
> What better way to scare up world oil prices (and therefore revenues) than by using the threat of developing nuclear weapons to use against Israel.
Plus there's always the chance that Jimmy Carter will give you a peaceful reactor if you promise not to make the naughty one. Good point.
Posted by: BNJ | January 11, 2007 10:57 AM
Of course, what does Iran do when the threats stop working?
I'd still bet that they'd first try to find a way to encourage more foreign investment before starting a regional war.
Posted by: CRB | January 11, 2007 01:13 PM